Usual gripes about Europe’s low ARPUs and over-regulation contrasted with operators’ optimism regarding opportunities presented by sovereignty and satellite
Keynote 1: Leading the Future: Intelligent, Inclusive, Unstoppable
On the main stage, and with a noticeable number of seats left empty compared to previous years, Vivek Badrinath (Director General, GSMA) opened MWC26 – the 20th iteration of the event held in Barcelona. While naturally praising the efforts of the mobile industry, Badrinath stated that completing the 5G journey, especially with respect to standalone, was a major mountain that it has not yet fully climbed. He made familiar arguments that Europe has lost ground on China and the US, with operators’ lack of scale hindering investment. Badrinath stated that the GSMA welcomed, and was engaging with, the EC’s merger guidelines review, calling for urgency in the process. Christel Heydemann (CEO, Orange) echoed the sentiment, stating that although Europe is well-served by fibre networks, supportive regulatory and investment environments remain critical to drive further progress. In her view, EU competitiveness will mean the simplification and harmonisation of sectoral rules. Though Heydemann considered that the EC understands this direction, it must now translate ambition into action. According to John Stankey (CEO, AT&T), consistently light-touch regulation in the US over the past 30 years since the Telecommunications Act has led to a healthy market underpinned by “inter-modal competition”. He complimented the current priorities of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), for example the copper switch-off, but believed that the shutdown could be difficult in some states such as California, which, because of federal versus state layers of regulation, tends to “do its own thing”. Looking to the future (and to the sky), Margherita Della Valle (CEO, Vodafone Group) focused her remarks on the transformational potential of satellite communications. However, she considered that this new frontier is stuck in a “wild west state” – a vast expanse without borders. Amid rising geopolitical tensions, Della Valle argued that, first and foremost, international collaboration would be vital to establish clear safety and security rules for satellite, while being mindful of the need to respect local sovereignty.
Sunil Bharti Mittal (Founder & Chairman, Bharti Enterprises) used his address to plead with regulators to do more on fraud. He outlined three things that need to happen to make progress. The first: Operators and tech platforms must collaborate. He used the example of how the GSM standard and global roaming came about. Secondly, institutional reform is needed, with Mittal claiming that Interpol as an organisation is no longer fit for purpose. His third call was for platforms to embrace regulation willingly rather than waiting to be regulated. Mittal stated there is a large number of organisations not governed by the same framework, arguing that “every inch of [operator’s] territory is regulated”. He shared a sense of frustration that regulators must wake up and bring them within scope.
Keynote 2: Transforming Tomorrow’s Connected World
The second keynote of the day launched with a heavy focus on satellite connectivity, as Gwynne Shotwell (President & COO, SpaceX) and Michael Nicolls (SpaceX SVP, Starlink) stressed its importance to resilience. Shotwell referenced how Starlink Mobile has connected over 4.4m people during emergencies, providing wireless emergency alerts while terrestrial networks are down. Shotwell and Nicolls went on to discuss the progress Starlink has made in working with telecoms operators around the world to offer its services (in 32 countries, across six continents), giving specific reference to its recently launched partnership with Virgin Media O2 in the UK. Nicolls also outlined Starlink’s plans to continue to utilise globally harmonised S-band spectrum rights to expand its services. Mickey Mikitani’s (Chairman & CEO, Rakuten Group) address also referenced the keynote’s strong satellite theme, highlighting Rakuten’s significant investment into AST SpaceMobile, as the operator targets 100% geographic mobile coverage in Japan.
Roberto Nobile (CEO, Personal) reminded us we have been debating fair share for a while, but have not made any progress. He claimed every time an MNO spends £100m on spectrum licences, £75m essentially goes to hyperscalers. Consolidation (which has become an increasing reality in all regions) was touted as the main solution to the “current perfect storm” and as the only way to increase scale. The familiar comparison of large landmasses (US, India) with the number of operators in Europe. He cautioned against a fight for spectrum between traditional MNOs and satellite operators, preferring a collaboration. Expanding on this, Nobile called for regulators and antitrust offices to refrain from siloing operators in fixed, mobile or satellite, instead asking for the industry to be understood as a ‘dynamic ecosystem’.
The keynote’s concluding fireside chat with David Zapolsky (Chief Global Affairs & Legal Officer, Amazon) and Óscar López (Minister for Digital and Civil Service Transformation, Government of Spain) diverted its attention away from satellite and onto data centres. Zapolsky was keen to announce Amazon’s new investment of €18bn (£15.7bn) into AI infrastructure in Spain, which is set to create up to 30,000 new jobs until 2035, but López made sure to emphasise the potential energy impacts of this. The conversation also highlighted the importance of green energy options to meet the increasing demand for AI infrastructure such as solar facilities.
5G's Inconvenient Truth: How Do We Make Money?
The conversation shifted from 5G deployment to monetisation, with operators asking themselves how to justify the investments that have been made. Enhanced consumer offerings (beyond usage and speed tiers) using dedicated slices and private networks in an enterprise setting are two areas being pursued now, even though it’s ten years since we were first promised them. However, as well as demand, regulatory ambiguity has been listed as an uncertainty for their success. The conversation turned to Europe versus the US with what is possible under current net neutrality rules. William Johnson (Senior Vice President & Dep. General Counsel Federal Regulatory & International Public Policy, Verizon) set the scene with the US having much higher ARPU and “a much more flexible regulatory environment in which to launch new services”. Despite rules being repealed in the US (and no apparent infringements), they remain in Europe with Dr Jakob Greiner (Vice President European Affairs, Deutsche Telekom) explaining how operators are being taken to court and challenged after launching premium retail offerings causing persistent hesitation. Importantly there was a commitment from DT to maintaining the best efforts nature of the internet (it’s here to stay and not being replaced) and that specialised connectivity will complement, not substitute it. Given lower ARPU in Europe, the decline in market capitalisation of former incumbents, and difficulties in earning the cost of capital, the prospect of new monetisation opportunities was positioned as at least part of the way to fix the problem. The session concluded with a reflection on net neutrality provisions being copied/pasted into Europe’s proposed Digital Networks Act (DNA). Greiner saw this as positive, with guidance on slicing and specialised services coming separately. However, he envisaged a timeframe of almost four years from now until they would arrive – seen as too little, too late.
Sovereignty as Strategy: Building Trusted Ecosystems for the AI Era
Ishwar Parulkar (CTO, AWS for Telecom) provided the audience with a helpful guide to the “nuanced” issue of digital sovereignty, defining it as the combination of data sovereignty (where data resides and who can access it) and operational sovereignty (guaranteeing resilience while ensuring independence and transparency). Given the multiple dimensions, Parulkar stated that there are different interpretations being taken around the world and consequently different requirements being imposed. Mariam Kaynia (CDIO, Eutelsat) recognised this too but outlined her expectations that any future regulation would be able to strike the right balance that would avoid stifling innovation. Anand Swaminathan (EVP, Infosys) described sovereignty as a “blessing” for the telecoms sector, considering that operators sit in the middle of the opportunity to increase trust and resilience, while also creating economic value. John Porter (CEO, Telenet) agreed, considering sovereignty a “net positive for national champions”, such as Telenet presumably. He was encouraged that although past regulation had been about “shaving 10 cents off” a consumer’s bill, Telenet is now engaged in more meaningful dialogue with the Belgian Government about industrial policy, while tracking similar conversations and developments at the EU level. Porter stated that sovereign AI represented a strong commercial opportunity to avoid “sputtering along” with low single digit revenue growth, as well as a chance to bring the private and public sectors closer together to align on a common agenda.
Keynote 4: What Does Strategic Tech Sovereignty Mean for Europe?
On the question of Europe’s competitiveness relative to the US, Tim Höttges (CEO, Deutsche Telekom), referred to it as being a “Hedgehog Day” (we assume he meant Groundhog Day). Recognising the proposed DNA was supposed to fix this, his reflection was “better no DNA than this DNA”. Marc Murtra (CEO, Telefónica) echoed the feeling that the DNA fell flat compared to the recommendations of the Letta and Draghi reports, stressing that his three asks at this point were for scale, pro-technology regulation, and speed.
After a wider discussion on sovereignty, attention turned to consolidation and the inability to gain scale in Europe. Recognising that it’s not always politicians’ fault, Höttges admitted a failure to properly invest in cloud, but that he was hampered by margin constraints. Having now made a decision to do so, there were calls for the state to be an anchor tenant for sovereign capabilities and the need for this investment for it to work. Murtra echoed the view that if you increase the demand, the industry stands ready to increase the supply.
Höttges believes we can learn a lot from the US – cutting of red tape and the creation of a single market being one of the biggest. There was also a moment of humility, recognising not to get distracted by things you can’t change – targeted squarely at Brussels and policymakers there. Murtra’s promise was to offer quality services at scale at competitive prices, if a social contract is made that allows Telefónica to scale.
