After decades of efforts to open up the market, Italy is the only example of a country backing off,” said Luca Schiavoni, a telecoms analyst at Assembly, a regulatory research firm in London. TIM — formerly a public company — held a monopoly over Italy’s telecommunication infrastructure for many years until new players entered the market. When TIM was a monopolist, telecom operators often blamed it for hindering access to the network, the analyst noted, adding that regulators should impose remedies and strict conditions “to avoid the mistakes of the past.”
There’s no reason to believe that a single operator would bring any efficiency from a technical point of view, noted Schiavoni, the analyst at Assembly, arguing that the government decided to step in to ensure that the infrastructure doesn’t fall into the hands of foreign investors.
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Telecoms analyst Mathew Howett, from Assembly Research, said: "There is very clearly a cost to the industry in terms of replacing Huawei earlier than operators might have done naturally.
"Government can't expect the industry to speed up deployment of networks if they pile on additional cost and slow down that rollout."
But he added: "The last time the government directed Ofcom with regards to spectrum - the liberalisation of bands for 4G and associated annual licence fees - legal challenges went on for a decade."
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Matthew Howett, the founder of the research firm Assembly, said: “Mobile phone operators have so far cherry-picked the major urban areas to deploy 5G, but changing the rules now will mean delays for the rest of the country.”
Previous research conducted by Assembly on behalf of the telecoms firms BT, Vodafone, O2 and Three, concluded the UK would suffer an economic hit of £6.8bn from not deploying 5G and risk falling behind continental Europe.
“We also thought it would set the UK back 18 to 24 months, but Dowden went further and said it would be three years,” Howett said. “Anywhere where coverage is already poor is now going to have to wait longer.”
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The ban on Huawei will delay the UK's full rollout of 5G by two to three years and the transition to an alternative will cost "up to £2 billion".
Tech expert Matthew Howett has estimated the delay's cost to the economy to be as much as £6.8 billion "in terms of lost benefit".
"It's about attracting new industries and new investment from manufacturers that want to take advantage of the 5G capability - all that gets lost if you slow us down," he said.
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"It's not only a very expensive process for the operators, but it's going to be a time-consuming one as well because they need to get access to all those sites to make the changes," added Matthew Howett from Assembly, the consultancy that wrote Mobile UK's report.
One thing practically everyone agrees on is that the matter needs to be settled once and for at a time when so much else about the economy is uncertain.
"These procurement decisions can take 18 months to two years to finalise and it takes time to ramp up supply to meet the demand," said Mr Howett.
"So this isn't just a question of overnight deciding not to use Huawei - it would take many years to do it properly."
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“This deal has been mooted for a while, and makes a lot of sense given the trend toward fixed and wireless network convergence,” said Matthew Howett, founder of London-based analyst firm Assembly Research.
A deal that brings together a fixed-line operator with a mobile provider is more likely to be approved by regulators than mobile-to-mobile consolidation, Howett said. “It doesn’t reduce competition in mobile, and preserves the four-player market that Ofcom and others have been committed to,” he said, referring to Britain’s telecommunications regulator.
Delays to UK’s full-fibre broadband rollout ‘could cost £30bn’
Delays to the government’s plan to roll out superfast broadband across the country could see the UK lose almost £30bn in economic benefits, according to research published today.
Telecoms analysts warned a 12-month delay to the 2025 target would mean the UK misses out on a £9.7bn boost to the economy, while a two-year setback would cost £28.7bn.
“Access to reliable, future-proof digital infrastructure for all isn’t a luxury, but now accepted as a necessity whether it’s used for work, education or play,” said Matthew Howett, principal analyst and founder of Assembly Research.
“Increasing investment in key digital infrastructure will provide the bounce-back and economic recovery the UK will desperately need in the months and years ahead.”
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A route forward is unclear. Some rebels may accept a cap lower than 35%. But others are siding with Trump, arguing that security concerns and alleged Chinese government influence over the company mean that it should be banned completely. Huawei has repeatedly said such fears are unfounded. The latter route would be expensive and convoluted: It would delay Britain’s 5G roll-out by two years and cost the U.K. economy 6.8 billion pounds ($8.5 billion), according to London-based technology analyst firm Assembly Research, harming productivity and risking the loss of key investment in 5G technology like connected factories and automated vehicles.
“It comes at an unwelcome time,” said that report’s author, Matthew Howett. “We’ve all come to realize just how important and crucial connectivity is, and anyone who’s had a poor experience will want those upgrades to happen yesterday, not in another 24 months’ time.”
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“Vodafone was caught between a rock and a hard place,” said Matt Howett, founder of Assembly Research, noting that although the company was simply later than its rivals in raising prices its timing was poor. “It doesn’t look good,” he said.
Mr Howett said that price rises that could have been frozen undermine those efforts. “You are giving with one hand and taking away with another. What consumers really feel most right now is what is coming out of their pockets,” he said.
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“We will need to watch what traffic patterns are like to ensure a smooth experience for everyone,” said Matthew Howett, founder of Assembly, a telecoms regulatory consultancy firm in London. “Some people are experiencing problems with online services. But that’s a problem with those services, and not the network.”
















