“Openreach is the perennial question,” says Matthew Howett, chief executive of Assembly Research. “Looking at the future, the big one is realising the value of the constituent parts of BT. The wider group does not reflect the value of its constituents. Openreach is now probably the most valuable component of that, particularly when the fibre build is complete. How will she realise that?”
Bart Smallman, from independent policy research company Assembly Research, said: ‘Arcep updated its mobile coverage maps to show daily updates about unavailable masts that are damaged or under maintenance.’ He believes real-world testing can better align consumers’ experiences of mobile coverage with what’s reported by operators and regulators.
But regardless of what happens, the infrastructure that has been built will remain. Fibre lasts for 100 years, meaning it will remain in use for generations. Without the “altnets”, the UK would likely have worse broadband technology, with consumers paying more for the privilege. For the regulator Ofcom that should be seen as a win.
“Rightly, Ofcom’s priority has always been on delivering effective, long-term competition,” says James Robinson, senior analyst at Assembly Research. He adds the regulator knows that some altnets will not survive on a standalone basis, but “its role is to provide a reasonable shot at success, not to artificially sustain certain operators”.
BT has launched a multimillion-pound effort to revive its consumer brand that was once a fixture in UK households, after years of sidelining products under its own name in favour of its EE offering.
“[This] will likely appeal to households that have embraced BT, or perhaps because their parents did, as a trusted, reliable provider, with the experience to put things right if they go wrong,” said Matt Howett, founder of Assembly Research.
The decision to revert to the BT brand has invoked memories of historic efforts to revitalise the company’s offering, such as its launch of BT Sport in 2013. “BT’s foray into sport more than a decade ago made the brand relevant again, and the hope is that the Euros in the summer of 2028 can do the same,” Howett said.
After connecting almost 20mn homes with fast internet, according to Assembly Research estimates, these alternative network providers — or altnets — now face a reckoning, with several mired in financial difficulties and struggling for sustainable returns.
“What’s clear is that a certain level of scale is needed,” said Matt Howett, Assembly Research’s founder. “Not all altnets have been created equal and not all will survive on their own […] consolidation is a “necessary path forward” to help drive further investment and growth, and “realise effective, long-term competition to Openreach.”
The thinly veiled threats suggest that the space race could become the latest flashpoint between Trump and the EU, following clashes over tariffs and a crackdown on US tech giants.
“Trump and the federal government have been really critical of [the EU], so I think in this newer area of sovereignty and satellites it’s going to be the same story where we see a lot of criticism from them,” says Bart Smallman at Assembly Research. “It definitely risks a further worsening of that relationship.”
The acquisition of Netomnia may face scrutiny from competition authorities due to the number of homes it serves which are already covered by Virgin Media O2’s network.
James Robinson, senior analyst at Assembly Research, said the size of the merged entity meant it would not necessarily trigger an official CMA investigation.
“But with consolidation in the fibre sector widely expected,” he said. “It may be instructive for the wider market that an informal review is done, if only to take no further action.”
Kirkby retains the support of industry analysts, who argue that she has done well under challenging circumstances.
Matthew Howett, founder of Assembly Research, adds: “[BT is] a juggernaut that’s hard to turn round. It’s slow and you’ve got to make careful manoeuvres… There are a lot of stakeholders that need to be taken on board.”
James Robinson, senior analyst at Assembly Research, said he was “hesitant” to say the proposals were “an early Christmas present from the government to industry”.
“After saying in the [June 2025] Infrastructure Strategy that it would bring forward proposals ‘as soon as possible’, a six-month wait for the consultation doesn’t exactly represent pace of action on an issue long considered a barrier in need of busting,” he said.
“It would also be several months more before leaseholders see the benefit,” he added.
Matt Howett, chief executive of telecoms consultancy Assembly Research defended the industry, saying it was “hard to imagine another regulated sector which has delivered as good an outcome for consumers as telecoms”.
“In mobile, consumers are using more, but paying less. Since 2019, more than £10bn has been spent on improving quality, while average real-terms mobile prices have fallen by a quarter.”
BT is exploring the launch of a low cost mobile brand in a bid to combat the rising threat posed by new entrants to the UK telecoms market including Revolut and Monzo.
Matt Howett, founder of Assembly Research, said that the ongoing cost of living pressures meant a strategy allowing BT to woo more cost-conscious consumers “seemed logical”.
Successful sub brands or virtual network operators tend to stand out for offerings such as excellent customer service, he said, adding that BT “will need to bring more than just connectivity to the table”.
The moves threaten to intensify competition for incumbents EE, Virgin Media O2 and the newly merged VodafoneThree.
Monzo is likely to enter the market as a mobile virtual network operator, which serves customers without building its own underlying infrastructure. MVNOs piggyback on the networks of major telecoms groups and typically then undercut them on price.
James Robinson, senior analyst at Assembly Research, said the new entrants could have a “significant” impact on the UK mobile market. “[These companies] have millions of customers in the UK to cross-sell services to and will propose attractive offers on price and other terms such as roaming [charges],” he added.
Accelerating the rollout of 5G SA would unlock £230 billion in economic benefit by 2035, according to analysis by Assembly Research, on behalf of BT. An increase in capacity in the busiest parts of the country would deliver the biggest boost, of about £124 billion, by allowing businesses to adopt new technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics more effectively, in turn increasing the UK’s attractiveness as an investment destination.
“Telecoms stands out as a rare success story among regulated industries,” says Matthew Howett, founder of Assembly Research, praising Ofcom for embracing competition and “giving companies the confidence to invest”.
“While prices in sectors like energy and water have climbed and quality has fallen, telecoms operators have delivered faster, more reliable networks at lower prices than a decade ago. Few industries can boast that consumers can get more, use more, while paying less.”
“Altnets need to be credited with being the catalyst for the speed at which [the rollout] has happened,” says Assembly’s Howett. “It would have happened eventually, but it would probably have been on a much slower, more gradual curve.”
Regulator Ofcom has for several years been drawing up contingency plans in case of a supplier collapse, but these have largely been focused on the scores of “alt-net” firms that have cropped up to challenge the dominance of BT.
“The expectation has always been that it would be an alt-net that would fail, not an established internet service provider”, says Matthew Howett, at Assembly Research.
“The policy interventions in fixed broadband have been good up until now,” says Howett. “It would be a shame to see the TalkTalk saga blemish that reputation.”
Unburdened by the cost of running a network, the MVNOs have competed vinously on price agains the operators from they lease capacity, although some think the challenges could change their approach.
“We’re getting to the stage where even they are realising they have to make some money. They’ve stopped being so aggressive on pricing,” said Matt Howett, the chief executive of Assembly Research.
“Two years is a long time when you’ve got operators who are saying that they can’t meet their cost of capital and that they’re in trouble and need to do something otherwise they’re going to exit the market and consumers suffer,”.
However, he adds that the companies “probably benefited from the delay because of the fact we got a new government that was focused on investment and growth and a realisation from the CMA that coverage isn’t where it should be”.
Most crucial is the prospect of an improvement to the UK’s shoddy mobile coverage, which has been a key priority of the Labour Government under telecoms minister Chris Bryant, as well as regulator Ofcom.
“Clearly the UK’s coverage position is not where it should be relative to other countries,” says Howett.
Matthew Howett, founder of Assembly Research, welcomed the move, saying that “for too long” BT had “kicked the problem of global into the long grass”. “While there is likely to be some short-term pain, the longer-term certainty around [the unit’s] future can only be a good thing for [the] group,” he added.
